June 15, 2018
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: June 15, 2018
Contact: Glenn Mills 207-621-5192
AUGUSTA – Labor market conditions continued to be strong in much of the state.
Seasonally Adjusted Statewide Estimates
Household Survey Estimates – The preliminary seasonally adjusted unemployment rate estimate of 2.8 percent for May was little changed from 2.7 percent for March and April, and down from 3.4 percent one year ago. The number of unemployed declined 4,400 over the year to 19,500. Maine’s unemployment rate has been below 4.0 percent for 30 consecutive months, the longest period on record.
The U.S. preliminary unemployment rate of 3.8 percent for May was little changed from 3.9 percent for April and 4.3 percent one year ago.
The New England average for May remained 3.6 percent. Estimates for other states in the region were 2.7 percent in New Hampshire, 2.8 percent in Vermont, 3.5 percent in Massachusetts, 4.4 percent in Rhode Island, and 4.5 percent in Connecticut.
The employment to population ratio estimate of 61.8 percent remained above the 60.4 percent U.S. average.
Payroll Survey Estimates – The 630,100 preliminary nonfarm payroll jobs estimate for May was up 8,400 from one year ago. Private sector jobs were up 8,000 to 529,700; government was little changed at 100,400.
Not Seasonally Adjusted Substate Estimates
The not seasonally adjusted statewide unemployment rate estimate of 3.0 percent for May was down from 3.4 percent one year ago. Unemployment was lowest in Cumberland County (2.4 percent) and highest in Aroostook County (5.2 percent). For the month of May, unemployment rates were the lowest on record in Androscoggin, Franklin, Hancock, Kennebec, Oxford, Penobscot, Piscataquis, Sagadahoc, Somerset, Waldo, and Washington counties; they were the lowest in 18 to 20 years in Aroostook, Cumberland, Knox, Lincoln, and York counties.
Among metro areas, the unemployment rate was below the statewide average in Portland-South Portland (2.4 percent) and Lewiston-Auburn (2.8 percent), and at the statewide average in Bangor (3.0 percent).
June workforce estimates will be released Friday, July 20 (Data Release Schedule: http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/releaseDates.html ).
This release is available at http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/news/release.html .
Labor force and unemployment data is available at http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/laus1.html .
Nonfarm payroll jobs data is available at http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/ces1.html .
Monthly workforce estimates are cooperatively produced and released by the Maine Department of Labor, Center for Workforce Research and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Preliminary labor force estimates, including rates (labor force participation, employment, and unemployment rates), and levels (labor force, employed, and unemployed) tend to move in a direction for several months and then reverse course. Those directional trends are largely driven by a smoothing procedure and may not indicate a change in underlying workforce conditions. Annual revisions (published in March each year) tend to moderate or eliminate those directional patterns. A comparison of 2017 preliminary and revised unemployment rate estimates is available at www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/blogs/2017workforcedata_revisions.pdf .
The 90 percent confidence interval for statewide unemployment rates in 2018 is 0.6 percentage points above or below the published estimate each month.
To assess employment growth, we recommend looking at nonfarm jobs from the payroll survey rather than resident employment from the household survey. The payroll survey is larger, has smaller margins of error, and is subject to smaller revisions. More on the differences in accuracy of the two measures is at www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/blogs/imprecise_data.pdf .
Nonfarm payroll jobs estimates tend to be volatile from month to month because there is variability in the sample of reporting employers and their representativeness for the universe of all employers. Additionally, seasonal adjustment is imperfect because weather, the beginning and ending of school semesters and holidays, and other events do not always occur with the same timing, which can exacerbate monthly volatility. Users should look to the trend over multiple months rather than the change from one specific month to another. Estimates for the period from October 2017 to September 2018 will be replaced with actual payroll data in March 2019. Those benchmark revisions are likely to show less volatility than preliminary estimates.